About Trunk Forecasting

Most large LECs require interconnecting local carriers to provide them with a trunk forecast. This forecast is used to plan for the amount of equipment and facilities needed to provision future orders. Some LECs require a forecast be submitted twice each year, while others require one every quarter. The number of years forecasted for also varies from LEC to LEC, but the average is 3 years.

Why is it important to forecast accurately?

LECs use this forecast to plan for the amount of equipment and facilities they will need in and between each local end office. If your company doesn't list all the end offices you plan to trunk to on the forecast, chances are very high that when you go to order the trunks later on, you will not be able to get them provisioned.

It is important that you not only list all the offices that you will need trunking to, but that you forecast an accurate amount. LECs also issue forecasts for their own trunking network each year. While marketing plans are taken into consideration, they are not the only factor used to calculate the number of trunks required. LECs base their forecast on a variety of factors, such as the number of lines in each end office, the highest number of trunks required for the group and the amount of actual growth in past years. Forecasting algorithyms are then applied to these factors to calculate the trunk quantity.

While LECs don't expect interconnecting local carriers to have the advanced resources they do to produce a forecast, they do expect the carriers to submit a REASONABLE forecast.A reasonable forecast would be considered one that you can look back on and see that the number of trunks forecasted was close to the actual number of trunks UTILIZED. Overforecasting on a consistent basis should be avoided because it can have a detrimental  effect on the credibility of a CLEC.

If you follow these two simple guidelines, you are more apt to have successful joint planning meetings AND get the trunks you order provisioned.

1. Never forecast more trunks in a quarter than you can actually provision in a quarter.
2. Avoid arbitrarily adding more trunks to your forecast each quarter. Trunk groups don't always grow quickly, so take your current utilization into consideration when forecasting. If the number of trunks you required hasn't increased in the last 6 months, there's no need to increase the forecast for the next quarter unless you have an expected marketing campaign being implemented during that time period.

  BackUP Trunk Forecasting Services

What portions of the forecasting process can BackUP help with?

• Locate end office information
• Update the forecast report with current quantities
• Input the end office and trunk quantities into the forecast
• Submit the forecast report to the LEC
• Attend Joint Planning meetings with your employees
• Submit revisions of the forecast to the LEC